As the world marks World AIDS Day under the theme “Overcoming Disruption, Transforming the AIDS Response,” Kenya is grappling with a worrying resurgence in HIV infections that threatens progress made over the past decade.

The Kenya AIDS Response Progress Report 2025 reveals a sharp rise in mother-to-child HIV transmission now above 9 percent the highest jump recorded in recent years. Nairobi leads in new adult infections, while several arid and semi-arid counties are witnessing unprecedented numbers of infants born with HIV.

For years, Kenya was hailed as a continental leader in HIV control. But new Ministry of Health statistics show a reversal. Mother-to-child transmission climbed from 7.3 percent in 2023 to 9.3 percent in 2024, nearly double the global goal of 5 percent.

Even more alarming, eight counties Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Garissa, Baringo, Marsabit and Kilifi recorded transmission rates above 20 percent, the highest in more than 15 years. In these regions, one in five infants born to HIV-positive mothers becomes infected.

According to the National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC), low antenatal clinic attendance and a strong preference for home deliveries in northern Kenya are major drivers of the spike.

NSDCC’s Douglas Bosire explained: “The main driver in northern Kenya is extremely low antenatal care attendance and a strong preference for home deliveries. Most do not complete the ANC process, and many babies end up contracting HIV during breastfeeding.”

While remote counties battle access challenges, Nairobi which hosts the largest number of people living with HIV now accounts for the highest number of new infections. NSDCC notes that more than half of all HIV cases nationally are concentrated in just seven counties, a trend influenced by population density rather than unusually high prevalence.

Bosire added: “When compared to population size, the numbers still reflect the national prevalence rate of around 3 percent.”

Government agencies say they have adopted a whole-of-society strategy to curb the rise, with renewed focus on adolescents, young women and girls who remain disproportionately affected.

However, health experts warn that the uptick points to deeper systemic issues within the HIV care continuum — including inequality, poverty, gender-based vulnerabilities and limited access to healthcare.

The NSDCC says Kenya plans to accelerate targeted interventions in high-risk regions, including tracing pregnant women, expanding ANC access, and reducing mother-to-child transmission to 5 percent by 2027. But with only five years left to achieve the global 2030 target of ending AIDS as a public health threat, the country is now racing against time.