Tokyo — 

Japan’s ruling party is in trouble, and it knows it.

The country is rife with political instability, having cycled through four prime ministers in the last five years – all members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

And while the LDP has ruled Japan almost continuously for the last 30 years, it’s now in a precarious position as it prepares to vote for a new party leader on Saturday – mired in scandal, widely unpopular, and abandoned by longtime supporters who have instead flocked to new right-wing parties.

The next party leader could very well become the country’s next prime minister, but even that’s not guaranteed; voters delivered a clear rebuke in the past two parliamentary elections, delivering seats to opposition parties and stripping the LDP of its majority.

Key Japanese neighbors, especially China, will be watching closely to see who comes out on top.

Japan’s political volatility began after Shinzo Abe stepped down as prime minister in 2020. Abe – widely seen as Japan’s last stable leader, having ruled for nearly nine years – was assassinated in 2022.

Since his tenure ended, the LDP has faced fallout over a slush fund scandal, an inflation surge, and a rightward political shift across the country.